Global Rice Market Report 2026
Updated: Sep 8
Supply, Trade, Stocks, Prices, and Key Risks
The global rice market is entering 2026/27 with a tighter balance.
Production is forecast at 537.8 MMT, below projected consumption of 541.4 MMT, creating a 3.6 MMT production deficit. At the same time, ending stocks are expected to decline to 192.7 MMT, while global trade expands to a record 63.1 MMT.
The market is not facing an outright shortage.
The more important shift is that the production cushion is narrowing, inventories are beginning to draw down, and both global stocks and export capacity remain concentrated in a small number of countries.
That leaves the market more sensitive to weather, policy, logistics and origin-specific disruptions.
Is the Global Rice Market Tightening?
Yes, but from a relatively well-supplied starting point.
The market is moving from a production surplus of 5.2 MMT in 2025/26 to a forecast deficit of 3.6 MMT in 2026/27, an 8.8 MMT swing in the annual balance.
Production is projected to fall by 5.0 MMT, while consumption rises by 3.8 MMT to a record level.
Ending stocks provide the immediate buffer, but they are expected to decline from 196.3 MMT to 192.7 MMT, while the stock-to-use ratio slips from 36.5% to 35.6%.
The key signal is not that rice has become scarce.
It is that less new production is available to absorb continued demand growth.
Where is Supply Losing Momentum?
Production weakness is appearing across several important markets.
India is forecast to produce 150.0 MMT, down 2.0 MMT year on year. Burma is projected at 11.0 MMT, down 1.0 MMT, while U.S. production falls by approximately 1.0 MMT to 5.56 MMT. Thailand is also expected to post a smaller decline.
Demand, meanwhile, remains resilient.
Import requirements are forecast higher in markets including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam and Senegal. Bangladesh shows the strongest proportional increase, with imports rising to 2.0 MMT, up 33.3% year on year.
This creates a clear market shift: supply growth is losing momentum across several origins while cross-border demand remains active.
How Concentrated is the Global Rice Buffer?
Headline global inventories remain substantial.
But their distribution is highly concentrated.
China is projected to hold approximately 105.0 MMT of ending stocks, while India holds around 50.0 MMT. Together, the two countries account for roughly 80% of global ending stocks.
Trade is similarly concentrated.
India alone is projected to account for 39.6% of global exports, while India, Vietnam and Thailand together represent around 64% of internationally traded rice.
This creates an important distinction: Global stocks can look comfortable while market flexibility remains concentrated.
The real question is not only how much rice exists globally, but where it is held and how much of that supply is available to international trade when conditions change.
Is Rice Prices Moving Together?
No.
Tighter fundamentals are transmitting unevenly across origins and rice classes.
In the U.S., long-grain season-average farm prices are forecast to rise 15.4%, from $10.40/cwt to $12.00/cwt, while medium- and short-grain prices are expected to soften.
The broader signal is that price pressure is becoming increasingly origin-, grade- and market-specific.
There is no single global rice price signal. A tighter balance changes the relative competitiveness of different origins.
What Could Move the Market Next?
Falconbridge Resources’ Global Rice Market Report 2026 examines the balance, changing trade flows, stock concentration, price transmission and the risks shaping the next phase of the market.
